DR Congo Ebola outbreak: nurses in protective clothing in an isolation ward, archive photo
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DR Congo Ebola Outbreak Passes 10,000 Cases Across Eight Provinces

Confirmed Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have passed 10,000, making the Bundibugyo virus outbreak the fastest-growing and deadliest in the country’s history and the second-largest Ebola epidemic ever recorded. Government data released on Tuesday put confirmed cases at 10,060 and deaths at 4,887, a fatality rate of nearly half, according to Al Jazeera and DW, citing the DRC’s Ministry of Public Health.

The milestone comes five months after the outbreak was declared on 15 May, and as health workers warn that the virus is spreading faster than they can trace it.

How Big Is the Outbreak Now?

Only the 2014–16 West African epidemic, which infected about 28,600 people and killed more than 11,000, has been larger. The DRC outbreak now spans 66 health zones in eight of the country’s 26 provinces. Ituri province in the north-east accounted for 71.7% of confirmed cases as of 25 October, Xinhua reported, citing official data.

The outbreak has also crossed borders. Uganda and Kenya have reported cases, with Kenya recording nine infections including two deaths. Nigeria confirmed a case in Abuja, the wife of a Swiss diplomat, who was later evacuated, as we reported earlier this month. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control lists the event as a multi-country outbreak.

Why Is This Strain So Hard to Control?

The outbreak is caused by Bundibugyo virus, a rarer species of Ebola for which there is no approved vaccine or specific treatment. The Ervebo vaccine used successfully in recent DRC outbreaks protects against the more common Zaire strain, not Bundibugyo.

Tracing is the bigger problem. Al Jazeera reported that about 80% of new cases are emerging outside the chains of transmission that health authorities are monitoring. The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention says at least 95% of new cases must come from known contacts for an outbreak to be considered under control.

Are Vaccines or Treatments Coming?

There is some progress. On Friday the World Health Organization announced that the first clinical trial of a vaccine candidate against Bundibugyo had begun, a development covered in our earlier report on the Ebola vaccine trial in DR Congo. Two trials are testing whether Ervebo offers any protection against Bundibugyo, and two antiviral treatment trials have been running since July, according to DW. Results are likely to take months.

What Are Responders Facing on the Ground?

  • Overwhelmed centres: Responders say some treatment centres are full, while remote and newly affected areas are short of medical supplies, Al Jazeera reported.
  • Violence: Attackers killed a nurse and injured another health worker responding to an Ebola case in Bafwasende, Tshopo province.
  • Unpaid staff: DW’s French service reported that some health workers have gone unpaid.
  • Border measures: Uganda has ordered a 21-day quarantine for citizens returning from the DRC.

Insecurity in eastern Congo, where armed groups operate across Ituri and North Kivu, has hampered Ebola responses for years. Mistrust of outsiders and the movement of people between mining areas, markets and border towns make contact tracing especially difficult.

How Worried Should People Outside Africa Be?

Health agencies stress that the risk to the general public outside affected areas remains low. Ebola spreads through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a sick person or someone who has died of the disease, not through the air. Travellers to affected regions are advised to avoid contact with sick people and to follow local health guidance. Anyone who develops fever, weakness, vomiting or bleeding within 21 days of returning should seek medical advice and mention their travel.

What Happens Next?

The WHO and Africa CDC are expected to issue updated situation reports this week. The key signals to watch are whether the share of cases among known contacts rises, whether the outbreak reaches new provinces or countries, and how quickly the vaccine trial can enrol participants. For background on how the outbreak spread, see our earlier report on Ebola reaching an eighth province.

Featured image: Nurses in an Ebola isolation ward in Kikwit, Zaire (now DR Congo), during the 1995 outbreak, by Ethleen Lloyd / CDC via Wikimedia Commons, public domain. Archive photo.

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