US Midterms 2026: The Senate and House Races That Will Decide Congress

Americans vote on Tuesday (3 November) in midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, and the outcome will shape everything from tariffs and the war with Iran to fuel prices and immigration enforcement.

Republicans currently hold both chambers. To take the House, Democrats need a net gain of three seats; to win a 51-49 Senate majority they need a net gain of four, according to CBC News. Neither target is out of reach, but the map, the money and the late polling all point to a night that could stretch well beyond Tuesday as close races are counted.

What Is at Stake on 3 November?

Control of Congress determines whether the White House can pass its legislative agenda, confirm nominees with ease and avoid oversight investigations. A Democratic House would gain subpoena power and the ability to block spending plans; a Democratic Senate would gain a veto over judicial and cabinet appointments. If Republicans hold both chambers, Mr Trump would govern with a friendly Congress until January 2029.

Midterms usually punish the party in the White House, and Democrats have campaigned heavily on living costs, including fuel and diesel prices, tariffs on Canadian goods, the conflict with Iran, the expansion of energy-hungry data centres and the conduct of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Republicans have argued that their majorities are needed to protect the administration’s economic and security policies.

Which Senate Races Are Toss-Ups?

The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate contests as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Michigan is the only one of the seven currently held by a Democrat, which is why analysts see a narrow but real path to a Democratic majority.

• Maine: Republican Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner as the party’s nominee in July.
• Michigan (open): with Democrat Gary Peters retiring, Abdul El-Sayed takes on Republican former congressman Mike Rogers.
• Ohio: Republican Jon Husted is defending his seat against former senator Sherrod Brown.
• Texas (open): Ken Paxton, who beat John Cornyn in the Republican primary, faces Democrat James Talarico.
• Iowa (open): with Joni Ernst retiring, Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek.
• Kansas: Republican Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton.
• Alaska: Republican Dan Sullivan faces former congresswoman Mary Peltola.

Texas has become one of the most expensive Senate races ever. NPR reported that more than $500m has been spent there since the primary, with Republicans and their allies accounting for more than $300m of it. Alaska has been complicated by the presence on the ballot of an independent candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan; the Justice Department has gone to court over the matter, and The New York Times first reported allegations that members of Ms Peltola’s campaign were involved in recruiting him. NPR said the controversy threatened to derail her momentum, and the result could take time.

Where Could Democrats Fall Short?

Democrats must also defend their own seats. Republicans are targeting Michigan, New Hampshire, where Democrat Chris Pappas faces former senator John E. Sununu in a race rated Lean Democratic, and Minnesota, where Peggy Flanagan faces the former sports broadcaster Michelle Tafoya, also Lean Democratic, although NPR noted the state appeared to be moving towards Republicans in the final days. North Carolina, open after Thom Tillis’s retirement, is rated Likely Democratic, with former governor Roy Cooper facing Michael Whatley, and Georgia is expected to stay with the Democrats.

On the Republican side, South Carolina, where Darline Graham, the sister of the late senator Lindsey Graham, is running for his seat against Democrat Annie Andrews, is rated Lean Republican. Mississippi and Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is again challenging, are rated Likely Republican. Losing even one of the toss-ups would make the Democrats’ arithmetic very difficult.

Which House Districts Should You Watch?

The battle for the House is being fought on a narrow front. No more than about 53 seats are rated genuinely competitive, according to analysts cited by CBC News, so a handful of districts are likely to decide control. Among those flagged as bellwethers:

• Virginia’s 1st: Republican Rob Wittman against prosecutor Shannon Taylor. Polls close at 7pm Eastern Time, making this one of the first results of the night.
• Pennsylvania’s 7th: Republican Ryan Mackenzie against Democrat Bob Brooks.
• New York’s 17th: Republican Mike Lawler against Democrat Cait Conley.
• Texas’s 15th: Republican Monica De La Cruz against Democrat Bobby Pulido, a test of Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley.
• Ohio’s 7th: Republican Max Miller against Democrat Brian Poindexter.

An early Democratic win in Virginia’s 1st would suggest a strong night for the party; a comfortable Republican hold would point the other way. Redrawn district maps in several states have also changed the playing field since 2024, which makes direct comparisons with the last election less reliable.

When Will We Know the Results?

Polls close in Virginia at 7pm Eastern Time on Tuesday, which is midnight GMT and 01:00 WAT on Wednesday, and the last polls in Alaska and Hawaii close several hours later. Some states count postal ballots slowly, and any race within half a percentage point may go to a recount, so control of one or both chambers might not be clear until Wednesday or later. Postal voting has been heavy; even Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, voted by mail from the Vatican.

Markets are watching closely after a turbulent week in which the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75%-4%, and Canada pushed ahead with a new alliance with the European Union in response to US tariffs. A change in control of Congress would not reverse those policies overnight, but it would change how much room the administration has to pursue them.

What Happens Next?

Whatever happens on Tuesday, the new Congress will be sworn in on 3 January 2027. MediaPavilion will report the results as they are confirmed by official counts and major news organisations’ projections. Readers following the count from Africa, Europe or Asia should expect the decisive results to arrive overnight and through Wednesday morning in their time zones.

Featured image: The United States Capitol at dusk, by Martin Falbisoner / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0. File photo.

Sources

• CBC News — These midterm races will decide who controls U.S. Congress for the rest of Trump’s presidency (31 October 2026).
• NPR — 2026 midterms: the Senate map (30 October 2026).
• USA Today — Senate and House races to watch in the 2026 midterm election (28 October 2026).